Why Phase Seven Could Be The Most Crucial Phase Yet
A closer look at the 57 seats could point to phase seven becoming the most crucial piece of the puzzle.
The tail end of the election season may yet turn out to be the most important phase. With just a little over 10% of all seats going to the polls on June 1, the political narrative on both sides—the National Democratic Alliance and INDIA alliance—is that the electorate has voted in their favour. While NDA leaders have been claiming they have crossed the majority mark already, INDIA alliance leaders say a vote for change has been cast.
But a closer look at the 57 seats could point to phase seven becoming the most crucial piece of the puzzle.
The 57 seats that polled on June 1 are spread over eight states and Union Territories.
In 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party won 25 of the 57 seats that went to the polls on June 1, most of them from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Himachal Pradesh—where it won all four seats in the state. Political analyst Amitabh Tewari explains how it was only by phase six in the last election that the BJP crossed the magic number of 278.
"BJP needs to gain seats in Bengal and Odisha to compensate for anticipated losses in states it had maxed out in 2019. Hence, phase seven is crucial for the BJP to not leave anything to chance," he said.
Phase seven becomes important from the point of view of the NDA, which is aiming to beat their 2019 tally of 353 seats as well. "If there is perceived loss in the first few phases, it has to be made up with perceived gains as well," said Yashwant Deshmukh, founder and director of C-Voter.
These gains could come from Odisha, West Bengal and Uttar Pradesh, where the Bahujan Samaj Party and Samajwadi Party are fighting separately in the Lok Sabha polls. Phase seven is equally important for the INDIA alliance that is hoping to keep the BJP under the 272 mark, even if the NDA crosses the halfway mark comfortably.
