Road To 2024: Simultaneous Polls In Andhra Pradesh, Odisha Key To NDA's Fortunes

Andhra Pradesh (25) and Odisha (21) send 46 MPs to the Lok Sabha, 8.5% of the total house strength, and could play an important role in government formation at the Centre. In 2019, the Bharatiya Janata Party couldn't even open its account in Andhra, while it trailed Naveen Patnaik’s Biju Janata Dal 12–8 in Odisha.

With the BJP maxing out in the Hindi heartland, it has adopted a look east and south policy to improve its tally from these regions and these two states are crucial in this strategy. The fact that Andhra and Odisha are also witnessing state elections (simultaneous polls) adds another layer of complexity. The BJP is banking on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Odisha and its alliance with the Telugu Desam Party in Andhra to make gains in these two states and also to compensate for losses from allies in northern and western states.

When the Vidhan and Lok Sabha polls are held together, as a voter, one needs to cast two votes, one to elect an MLA and the other to elect a MP. In the same polling room, there are two EVMs, where one needs to press two buttons, one on each machine, to elect a MLA and MP. From a psychological perspective, voters normally tend to press the same buttons twice, as we will see in the below analysis. Split voting is rarely seen in cases of simultaneous polls.

Naveen Patnaik's BJD won the Vidhan as well as the Lok Sabha elections in Odisha in 2014 and 2019. The TDP won the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2014 as well as the Lok Sabha polls in Andhra with partner BJP. The Yuvajana Sramika Rythu Congress Party won the Vidhan Sabha elections in 2019 as well as the Lok Sabha polls.

Hence, if the BJP/National Democratic Alliance aims to improve its Lok Sabha tally in Odisha and Andhra, it has to do well in the Vidhan Sabha elections in these two states as well. Odisha has 147 assembly segments, while Andhra has 175.

In 2014, when the Modi era started, the BJD swept the assembly elections, winning 117 seats; the Indian National Congress won 16; and the BJP won 10. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJD won 20 of the 21 seats and the BJP 1.

In terms of vote share, the BJD got 44% in the Vidhan Sabha and 45% in the Lok Sabha, almost identical. The BJP got an 18% vote share in the Vidhan Sabha and 22% in the Lok Sabha, getting a leg up due to the national character of the polls.

In terms of absolute votes, while the BJD got 0.93 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 0.95 crore votes in the Lok Sabha. In terms of absolute votes, while the BJP got 0.39 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 0.46 crore votes in the Lok Sabha.

In 2019, the BJD swept the assembly elections again by winning 112 seats, the INC won nine and the BJP won 23. In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJD won 12 of the 21 seats and the BJP eight seats.

In terms of vote share, the BJD got 45% in the Vidhan Sabha and 43% in the Lok Sabha, almost identical. The BJP got 33% of the vote share in the Vidhan Sabha and 39% in the Lok Sabha, getting a leg up due to the national character of the polls.

In terms of absolute votes, while the BJD got 1.06 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 1.02 crore votes in the Lok Sabha. In terms of absolute votes, while the BJP got 0.77 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 0.91 crore votes in the Lok Sabha.

The above analysis shows that the party that wins the Vidhan Sabha elections goes on to win majority seats in the Lok Sabha. The BJD's entire campaign is predicated on this, where, in a video, Patnaik is requesting voters to press the party symbol (shankh) in both the Vidhan and the Lok Sabha elections. 

Both Narendra Modi and Naveen Patnaik are very similar to each other. Both do not have any dependents to take care of. Hence, they enjoy a non-corruptible image and zero tolerance for corruption.

Both of them rely on bureaucrats to run the government and implement policy decisions. The country is run from the Prime Minister's Office and the state from the 'Third Floor' of the secretariat. Both have a towering personality and have created a huge fan base of their own, which is much bigger than their party.

While the BJD and the BJP were in talks with each other for an alliance but failed, Modi sharply hit back at Patnaik a few days ago. The BJD has turned this around as an attack on Odia pride.

The BJP lacks a charismatic leader in the state to take on Patnaik, leading to a consensus that the BJD is ahead in state elections. The BJP, thus, hopes that voters exhibit split voting and help it race ahead of the BJD in general elections.

In 2014, after the bifurcation of Telangana, the BJP and the TDP contested together in alliance, with the NDA winning 106 and the YSRCP 67 seats in the state assembly and Chandrababu Naidu becoming the chief minister. In the simultaneous Lok Sabha elections, the NDA won 17 and the YSRCP eight seats.

In terms of vote share, the YSRCP got 45% in the Vidhan Sabha and 46% in the Lok Sabha, almost identical. The NDA (TDP + BJP) got 47% of the vote share in the Vidhan Sabha and 48% in the Lok Sabha, almost similar. 

In terms of absolute votes, while the YSRCP got 1.28 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 1.31 crore votes in the Lok Sabha. In terms of absolute votes, while the NDA got 1.35 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 1.37 crore votes in the Lok Sabha.

In 2019, the BJP and the TDP contested separately as there was a breakdown in the alliance. The YSRCP swept the state, bagging 151 of the 175 seats, with the TDP winning just 23 seats. In the simultaneous Lok Sabha elections, the YSRCP won 22 and the TDP three seats.

In terms of vote share, the YSRCP got 50% in the Vidhan Sabha and 49% in the Lok Sabha, almost identical. The TDP got 39% of the vote share in the Vidhan Sabha and 40% in the Lok Sabha, almost similar. In terms of absolute votes, while the YSRCP got 1.56 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 1.51 crore votes in the Lok Sabha.

In terms of absolute votes, while the TDP got 1.23 crore votes in the Vidhan Sabha, it received 1.25 crore votes in the Lok Sabha. The party, which won the Vidhan Sabha polls, went on to win the majority seats in the Lok Sabha as well.

Andhra, which has voted, witnessed a fierce battle between the YSRCP and the NDA. While Jagan is banking on the women factor and his welfare policies, the TDP-led NDA is banking on anti-incumbency against MPs/MLAs, lack of jobs and development.

The NDA hopes a resurgent Congress eats into the YSRCP's Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes, and minority vote bank and, in turn, helps the TDP-BJP-Jana Sena candidates in the process. While the YSRCP is strong in rural areas, the NDA in urban areas. Post-bifurcation, today Andhra has a high rural population as the main urban centre, Hyderabad, has gone to Telangana. 

To sum up, the BJP and partners will need to do well in the Vidhan Sabha elections in Odisha and Andhra to improve their chances in the Lok Sabha polls. As data shows, whichever party wins the Vidhan Sabha elections in these states goes on to win majority seats in the Lok Sabha. 

Amitabh Tiwari is a political commentator, strategist, and consultant advising political parties and leaders. He was previously a corporate and investment banker

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of NDTV Profit or its editorial team.