Haryana Elections: Congress Gaining From JJP, BJP's Vote Share Intact, Says Pradeep Gupta
Axis My India exit poll predict that the Congress will increase its vote share by 15 percentage points, securing 43% and winning 53-65 seats in the 90-member Haryana Legislative Assembly.
The Congress' projected victory in the Haryana Assembly elections is coming on the back of a major shift of votes from regional heavyweight Jannayak Janta Party to the grand old party, according to pollster Pradeep Gupta.
The Dushyant Chautala-led JJP's vote share is projected to be "decimated," from nearly 15% in 2019 to 1-2% this time, Gupta, chairman and managing director of Axis My India, told NDTV Profit. The majority of its votes have likely shifted to Congress, he said.
The agency's exit polls predict that the Congress will increase its vote share by 15 percentage points, securing 43% and winning 53-65 seats in the 90-member Haryana Legislative Assembly. The JJP is expected to draw blank, compared to 10 seats five years ago.
Notably, the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party will manage to keep its vote share largely intact even as it stares at a possible rout in the elections, Gupta said.
"In 2014, the BJP came to power with 33% vote share and 47 seats, whereas in 2019, vote share increased to 36.8% even as the number of seats declined to 40. This time, the party will poll 35% of the vote while seats are reducing drastically," Gupta said.
Axis My exit polls for India show the BJP securing 18-28 seats.
The Haryana Assembly elections were held in a single phase on Oct. 5. Most exit polls suggest a Congress victory with an outright majority, ending 10 years of BJP rule. The results will be announced on Tuesday.
According to Axis My India, the BJP is largely securing the bulk of OBCs, Brahmins, and Saini votes, but Mahajan and Banias are voting almost equally for both Congress and BJP.
The Bhupinder Hooda-led Congress is getting a lion's share of Jat and Muslim votes and a fairly good share of Dalit votes.
The Haryana election results, along with those of Jammu and Kashmir, come after the BJP's underwhelming performance in the Lok Sabha elections, where it failed to secure a majority of its own. In the state, the BJP and Congress evenly won five parliamentary seats.
