Exit Poll 2024 Highlights: Modi 3.0 On Cards But '400-Paar' Looks Unlikely

Chanakya's exit poll survey has predicted that the BJP will secure between 385 and 415 seats in the 2024 general election. The survey also expects the INDI alliance to win between 96 and 118 seats. This makes News 24-Chanakya the second exit poll to forecast over 400 seats for the BJP after India TV-CNX.

• NDA: 358

• INDIA: 132

• Others: 53

The first exit poll to give a 400-plus projection for the National Democratic Alliance is the one by India TV-CNX.

• NDA: 371-401

• INDIA: 109-139

• Others: 28-38

Uttar Pradesh (80)

• BJP+: 69

• SP+: 11

• BSP: 0

• Others: 0

Maharashtra (48)

• BJP+: 26

• Congress+: 22

• Others: 0

Punjab (13)

• AAP: 4

• BJP: 4

• Congress: 5

• Others: 0

Haryana (10)

• BJP: 7

• Congress+: 3

• Others: 0

Uttarakhand (5)

• BJP: 5

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Jammu (5)

• BJP: 2

• Congress+: 1

• JKPDP: 1

• Others: 1

Meghalaya (2)

• BJP+: 2

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Madhya Pradesh (29)

• BJP: 28

• Congress+: 1

• Others: 0

Gujarat (26)

• BJP: 26

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Jharkhand (14)

• BJP+:13

• Congress: 1

• Others: 0

Tamil Nadu (39)

• DMK+: 34

• BJP+: 3

• AIADMK: 2

Bihar (40)

• BJP+: 31

• RJD+: 8

• Others: 1

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 1: 66.14%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 2: 66.71%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 3: 65.68%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 4: 69.16%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 5: 62.20%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 6: 63.40%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 7: 59.45%

Counting of votes for General Election to Lok Sabha 2024 and State Legislative Assemblies of Andhra Pradesh and Odisha is scheduled on June 4. Counting of votes for General Elections to State Legislative Assemblies of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim will take place on June 2.

Himachal Pradesh (4)

• BJP: 4

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Karnataka (28)

• BJP+: 24

• Congress+: 4

• Others: 0

Andhra Pradesh (25)

• TDP+: 22

• YSRCP: 3

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Punjab (13)

• BJP: 4

• Congress: 4

• AAP: 2

• Others: 3

Tamil Nadu (39)

• DMK+: 29

• BJP: 10

• AIADMK: 0

• Others: 0

Telangana (17)

• BJP: 12

• Congress: 5

• BRS: 0

• Others: 0

Kerela (20)

• UDF: 15

• LDF: 1

• BJP+: 4

• Others: 0

Bihar (40)

• BJP+: 36

• Congress: 4

• Others: 0

Picture in Maharashtra is set to different from rest of country, says senior journalist Rohit Chandavarkar, as most exit polls predict a third term for the Narendra Modi-led government in the centre.

BJP’s Maharashtra alliance strategy might not have worked, he says, adding that the party is expected to win 22-23 seats in the state with alliance partners.

BJP may think of changing the Maharashtra alliance, as state Assembly polls are due in 5-6 months, says Chandavarkar.

NDA will be close to 272 seats, he says, adding that the alliance may 20 seats in Maharashtra and 10 seats in Bihar. It will be difficult for NDA to outperform its last West Bengal performance, he says.

BJP on its may drop below 250 seats is likely to stay above the 272 mark, according to the senior journalist. The party had won 303 seats in the previous Lok Sabha elections.

The '400-paar' goal set by the BJP looks unlikely now, says Aditi Phadnis, contributing editor at Business Standard. Reservation affirmative action proved to be a self-goal by BJP, she says.

Meanwhile, political commentator Sandeep Ghose says its unfair to hold BJP to their 400-seat projection, adding that a 350+ seat win is also a victory.

The exit poll result should calm the markets down, says Gurmeet Chadha, managing partner and CIO at Complete Circle, in a conversation with NDTV Profit.

The foreign institutional investors are short on markets, Chadha said, and there maybe a short covering seen the markets. "FIIs are going to come back."

Monday will see long-positions come back, says Dipan Mehta, founder and director, Elixir Equities.

Street will heave a sigh of relief, Mehta says, adding that if the number is exceptionally high, industrial, labour, judicial policies may see changes.

Bharatiya Janata Party is set to win all seats in Gujarat, Uttarakhand and Chhattisgarh, according exit poll for the states by News24-Chanakya.

Gujarat (26)

• BJP: 26

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Uttarakhand (5)

• BJP: 5

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Chhattisgarh (11)

• BJP: 11

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Jharkhand (14)

• BJP+: 12

• Congress+: 2

• Others: 0

Haryana (10)

• BJP: 6

• Congress: 4

• Others: 0

Madhya Pradesh (29)

• BJP: 29

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Delhi (7)

• BJP: 6

• Congress+: 1

• Others: 0

Assam (14)

• BJP+: 12

• Congress+: 1

• Others: 1

Maharashtra (48)

• BJP+: 33

• Congress+: 8

• Others: 0

Rajasthan (25)

• BJP: 22

• Congress+: 2

• Others: 1

Odisha (21)

• BJP: 16

• BJD: 4

• Congress+: 1

• Others: 0

With most exit polls predicting a third term for the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance, markets will have the much-needed certainty after a bout of volatility.

Join NDTV Profit live as we decode the exit polls for Lok Sabha elections 2024 with market experts.

The key battle state of Uttar Pradesh will remain a BJP bastion. The exit polls so far give the saffron-party-led NDA 67-74 seats out of 80, while the tally for INDIA remains confined to 6-12.

The state saw names like Narendra Modi, Rahul Gandhi, Smriti Irani, Akhilesh Yadav and others fight it out on different seats in the state.

West Bengal is set to give a major fillip to the Bharatiya Janta Party's goals in the state, as four exit polls predict the saffron party bagging a higher number of Lok Sabha seats than the Trinamool Congress.

The poll by Jan Ki Baat has predicted between 21 and 26 seats for the BJP and 16-18 for the TMC. The numbers for India News-D-Dynamics are 21 for the BJP and 19 for the TMC, while Republic Bharat-Matrize has given the BJP between 21 and 25 seats, predicting that Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee's party will be reduced to between 16 and 20.

Most exit polls see NDA maintaining a comfortable lead in Bihar. Out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, the BJP-led alliance is expected to win 29-37 seats, as per the exit polls released so far.

(Note: This poll of polls data will change with more updates.)

Prime Minister Narendra Modi took to X, formerly known as Twitter, to thank the voters for exercising their mandate in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections. He also extended his gratitude to the party workers of Bharatiya Janata Party and its allies in a thread of posts.

A look at the exit polls released so far puts the National Democratic Alliance well ahead of the opposing INDIA bloc. The BJP-led coalition is set to win 342-392 Lok Sabha seats. Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc is seen limited to 118-169 seats.

(Note: This poll of polls data will change with more updates.)

The National Democratic Alliance is likely to improve its seat to almost 380 seats, says the exit poll survey by News Nation. The INDI alliance is seen bagging 153-169 seats, as per the survey.

• NDA: 342-378

• INDIA: 153-169

• Others: 21-23

The exit poll by Dainik Bhaskar sees the BJP-led NDA being limited to 251-350 seats. Meanwhile, INDIA alliance might cross the 200-mark, as per the survey.

• NDA: 281-350

• INDIA: 145-201

• Others: 33-49

BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to exceed the 350-mark, but fall short of 370.

• NDA: 353-368

• INDIA: 118-133

• Others: 43-48

Addressing the media after a two-and-a-half-hour confabulations with INDIA bloc leaders at his residence in Delhi, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge said the alliance will get more than 295 seats, enough for them to form the next government.

Kharge asserted the INDIA bloc has arrived at the figure after feedback from people. The leaders discussed a host of issues during the meeting, including the precautions to be taken on the counting day on June 4.

The ABP C-Voter exit poll for the Lok Sabha elections predict NDA expanding their presence in Andhra Pradesh. The INDIA bloc is expected to get most seats in Tamil Nadu.

Andhra Pradesh (25)

• NDA: 21-25

• YSRCP: 0-4

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Karnataka (28)

• NDA: 23-25

• INDIA: 3-5

Telangana (17)

• BJP: 7-9

• Congress: 7-9

• AIMIM: 0-1

• BRS: 0-0

Kerela (20)

• NDA: 1-3

• UDF: 17-19

• LDF: 0-0

• Others: 0-0

Tamil Nadu (39)

• NDA: 0-2

• INDIA: 37-39

• AIADMK: 0-0

• Others: 0

The tri-way battle in Andhra Pradesh seems to be a close fight, with YSRCP getting up to 15 seats and NDA bagging 12 seats, as per the Navbharat-ETG exit poll.

Andhra Pradesh (25)

• YSRCP: 13-15

• NDA: 10-12

• INDIA: 0

• Others: 0

Karnataka (28)

• BJP: 23

• Cong: 5

• JDS: 0

• Others: 0

Telangana (17)

• BJP: 9

• Congress: 7

• Others: 1

Goa (2)

• BJP: 2

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Ladakh (1)

• BJP: 0

• Congress: 1

Pondicherry (1)

• BJP: 0

• Congress: 1

Daman & Diu, Dadar & Nagar Haveli (2)

• BJP: 0

• Congress: 2

Chandigarh (1)

• BJP: 1

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Kerela (20)

• UDF: 15

• LDF: 4

• BJP: 0-1

• Others: 0

Mizoram (1)

• BJP: 0

• Congress: 0

• ZPM: 1

• Others: 0

Nagaland (1)

• NDPP: 1

• Congress: 0

• Others: 0

Sikkim (1)

• BJP: 0

• Congress: 0

• SKM: 1

• Others: 0

Manipur (2)

• BJP: 1

• Congress: 1

• Others: 0

BJP might have failed to fulfill its goal of making a strong foothold in the southern India, a survey by India TV-CNX shows. In Kerala, the ruling UDF maintains a comfortable lead, with BJP standing third in the tally for the state, the exit poll shows.

Telangana is only state in the region where the saffron party might manage to cross the halfway mark, the survey said.

India TV-CNX

Kerala (20)

• UDF: 13 -15

• LDF: 3-5

• BJP: 1-3

Telangana (17)

• BJP: 8-10

• Congress: 6-8

• BRS: 0-1

• AIMIM: 1-1

Andhra Pradesh (25)

• YSRCP: 3-5

• Congress: 13

• BJP 4-6

• Jan Sena: 2-2

Tamil Nadu (39)

• DMK: 16-18

• Congress: 6-8

• AIADMK: 0-1

• BJP: 5-7

• Others: 8-10

Bharatiya Janata Party chief JP Nadda exuded confidence that his party will win more than 370 Lok Sabha seats and the NDA more than 400. His remarks came after polling for the seventh and last phase of the Lok Sabha elections 2024.

The elections for the 543 contested Lok Sabha seats require a party or coalition to secure a simple majority of 272 seats to form a government. Counting of votes will be conducted on June 4.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance is likely to be just shy of 360 seats in the Lok Sabha elections 2024, as per the survey of Republic Bharat-P Marq. INDIA alliance is seen corssing the 150-mark.

• NDA: 359

• INDIA: 154

• Others: 30

India News-D-Dynamic exit poll for Lok Sabha elections expects BJP-led National Democratic Alliance bagging 371 seats. The INDIA bloc is expected to clock 125 wins as per the survey.

• NDA: 371

• INDIA: 125

• Others: 47

The voter survey by Jan Ki Baat sees BJP crossing the 270-mark comfortably, with NDA getting more than 370 seats. Half the votes cast have gone to the alliance, as per the exit poll.

• NDA: 377 (BJP: 327)

• INDIA: 151 (Congress: 52)

• Others: 15

Vote Share

• NDA: 50%

• INDIA: 35%

• Other: 15%

The voting for the seventh and final phase of the Lok Sabha elections will conclude at 6:00 p.m. As per election rules, fresh entry to poll booths ends at 6:00 p.m. and those in queue are allowed to complete their voting. Thus draws the close to world's largest democratic exercise running for 44 days.

With less than an hour of voting left, and exit polls expected anytime now, the last phase of the Lok Sabha elections may turn out to be the most crucial one yet. The political narrative on both sides—the National Democratic Alliance and INDIA alliance—is that the electorate has voted in their favour.

• All India: 58.3%

• Bihar: 48.9%

• Chandigarh: 62.8 %

• Himachal Pradesh: 66.6%

• Jharkhand: 68.0%

• Odisha: 62.5%

• Punjab: 55.2%

• Uttar Pradesh: 54.0%

• West Bengal: 69.9%

Constituents of the INDIA bloc overturned their decision to not participate in exit poll debates on television. The decision was taken after the alliance's top leaders met and deliberated on the issue at Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge's residence on Saturday evening, shortly before exit polls were to be announced.

"After considering factors for and against participating in the exit polls, it has been decided by consensus that all the INDIA (bloc) parties will participate in the exit poll debates on television this evening," said Congress spokesperson Pawan Khera said in a post on X.

On Friday, Congress had said it will not participate in any Lok Sabha exit poll debates on television channels.

Exit polls have been known to be off the mark in election results. Here's how the exit polls for the last two Lok Sabha elections stacked up against actual results.

• India Today-Cicero: 272 seats for NDA, 115 seats for UPA

• News 24-Chanakya: 340 seats for NDA, 101 seats for UPA

• CNN-IBN-CSDS: 280 seats for NDA, 97 seats for UPA

• Times Now ORG: 249 seats for NDA, 148 seats for UPA

• ABP News-Nielsen: 274 seats for NDA, 97 seats for UPA

• NDTV-Hansa Research: 279 seats for NDA, 103 seats for UPA

• NDA: 336 seats; BJP won 282 seats

• UPA: 60 seats; Congress won just 44 seats

• India Today-Axis: 339-365 seats for NDA, 77-108 seats for UPA

• News 24-Today's Chanakya: 350 seats for NDA, 95 seats for UPA

• News18-IPSOS: 336 seats for NDA, 82 seats for UPA

• Times Now VMR: 306 seats for NDA, 132 seats for UPA

• India TV-CNX: 300 seats for NDA, 120 seats for UPA

• NDA: Won 352 seats. BJP secured 303 seats.

• UPA: Won 91 seats. Congress won 52 seats.

Low voter turnout remained a concern during the Lok Sabha elections 2024. As per Election Commission of India, the first six phases saw voter turnout as follows:

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 1: 66.14%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 2: 66.71%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 3: 65.68%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 4: 69.16%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 5: 62.20%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 6: 63.40%

In comparison, the seven phases of Lok Sabha polls in 2019 recorded voter turnout as follows:

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 1: 69.58%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 2: 69.45%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 3: 68.40%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 4: 65.50%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 5: 64.16%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 6: 64.40%

• Total Voter turnout for Phase 7: 61.71%

With the last leg of Lok Sabha elections 2024 coming to a close, attention now shifts to the exit polls that are set to follow soon. Month and a half and seven phases later, nearly 57.78 crore voters exercised their mandate in the first six phases out of nearly 100 crore eligible electors. Voter turnout for the final phase, as of 3:00 pm stood at 49.68%.

From capital markets to policy think tanks, all eyes will be on the exit polls for an indication to the next government at the centre. Uncertainty over the victory margin has introduced some unease in the markets over the past few weeks. A clear picture of how the contestants fared in the recent general elections is likely to pull markets out of the volatility they have experienced over the past few weeks.