Vodafone Idea Could Challenge Jio, Airtel For Market Share In Two Years, Says Jefferies

While Jio's and Airtel's market share gains is likely to continue in the near term, it could moderate going into fiscal 2026 as Vodafone Idea could emerge as a competitor on the back of recent fundraise, Jefferies said in the backdrop of monthly telecom subscriber data for June.

Jio's outperformance on active subscribers additions bodes well for the sector's competitive intensity, according to Jefferies. This may also be one of the reasons why Jio took the lead on tariff hikes, it said.

During the month, the total telecom subscriber base grew 0.16% to 120.6 crore, showed Telecom Regulatory Authority of India data for June released Tuesday.

Among telecom companies, Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd. added the highest number of mobile users in June with 19.1 lakh new subscribers, while Bharti Airtel Ltd. registered 12.5 lakh new connections. Vodafone Idea Ltd. and Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd. lost 8.6 lakh and 7.45 lakh customers, respectively.

Here is a look at what the data showed about the India's telecom subscriber base, active subscriber base and broadband subscriber base.

This category includes all the subscribers, whether active or inactive. It is divided into wired and wireless segments. Net additions in the wireless segment grew by 16 lakh month-on-month in June 2024, while total net additions grew by 19 lakh subscribers.

Jio led the pack with the highest number of net additions at 19 lakh wireless users. Bharati Airtel followed at 12 lakh subscriber growth.

While Vodafone idea lost 8 lakh users in the wireless category.

There are times when a user has bought the sim card but is an inactive user. This does not add to the revenue of the company and hence looking at active subscriber base gives a more accurate picture.

Data for active subscribers is reported for the wireless segment only. The active wireless subscribers in June, for the sector as a whole, came in at 10,610 lakh, which is at approximately 90.65% of the total wireless subscriber base.

Company-wise, this category too saw Reliance Jio leading with 40 lakh net additions on a month on month basis in June. Vodafone Idea lost the most at 27 lakh net active subscribers. Bharti Airtel had modest additions at 7 lakh net active subscribers.

This category includes the 4G and 5G subscribers and came in at about 9,400 lakh subscribers, representing a 0.6% growth at a sectoral level. This includes both wired, as well as wireless subscribers.

In contrast to the active subscribers base category, gains in the broadband space were led by Bharti Airtel, with a net addition of 33 lakh broadband subscribers (wired and wireless both). While the number for Vodafone Idea was steady month on month at 6 lakh, Reliance Jio had 20 lakh net add subscribers.

Reliance Jio had the highest number of subscriber additions in June both on a totality basis and on an active subscriber basis, month-on-month.

However, in terms of broadband services, Bharti Airtel led the pack in terms of net additional users for broadband services

While, Vodafone Idea lagged growth in all three categories. It lost subscribers in the total as well as the active subscribers category, but had stable month on month additions for its broadband services.