IMD Retains 'Above Normal' Forecast For Southwest Monsoon
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average.
The country is likely to see 'above normal' rainfall during monsoon season between June and September 2024, the IMD said, reaffirming its previous forecast.
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long-period average with a model error of ± 4%, the IMD stated in a press release on Monday. The forecast bodes well for India's economy, more so for the agricultural sector, which took a hit because of inequitable rainfall last season.
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be above normal over Central India and South Peninsular India, in excess of 106% of LPA; normal over Northwest India, between 92 and 108% of LPA; and below normal over Northeast India, below 94% of LPA.
The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone, consisting of most of the rain-fed agriculture areas in the country, is most likely to be above normal, in excess of 106% of LPA.
Above-normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except for many areas of the northern part of Northwest India, Northeast India the eastern part of Central India and adjoining areas of east India, where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.
June 2024: Normal Rainfall Likely
The country will most likely see normal rainfall between 92 and 108% of LPA during June 2024. The month will also see above-normal monthly maximum temperatures over most parts of the country, except many parts of southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely.
Above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except the extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely.
The strong El Niño conditions observed over the equatorial Pacific at the beginning of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and are currently transitioning towards ENSO-neutral conditions. The latest climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditions are likely to get established during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.
At present, neutral Indian Ocean dipole conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest forecasts from many global climate models indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
