Charting the Global Economy: European Growth Exceeds Projections
In the US, the closely watched jobs report pointed to moderating labor demand and slower wage growth. That should help temper stubborn inflationary pressures, which explains why the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week and signaled they may stay higher for longer.
(Bloomberg) -- Economic growth in Germany, France, Italy and Spain exceeded expectations at the start of the year, and likely interest-rate cuts from the European Central Bank are seen bolstering prospects for a still-fragile euro zone.
In the US, the closely watched jobs report pointed to moderating labor demand and slower wage growth. That should help temper stubborn inflationary pressures, which explains why the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged this week and signaled they may stay higher for longer.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy, geopolitics and markets:
Europe
The euro zone exited recession as its four top economies drove much speedier growth than expected, though the recent retreat in inflation stalled. First-quarter gross domestic product increased 0.3% from the previous three months, the strongest pace in 1 1/2 years. A separate release showed consumer prices rose an annualized 2.4% in April, matching March’s pace.
Sweden’s economy posted a fourth consecutive quarter of contraction as interest-rate cuts that could spur activity in the largest Nordic nation are yet to materialize.
US
US employers scaled back hiring in April and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, suggesting some cooling is underway in the labor market after a strong start to the year. Wage gains cooled, moving in the direction Fed Chair Jerome Powell said is probably needed to tame inflation, especially after a slew of releases earlier in the week suggested wage pressures continue to bite.
The services sector unexpectedly contracted in April for the first time since 2022 as a gauge of business activity slumped to a four-year low. If weaker readings persist, it could raise concerns about a broader slowdown in economic growth because the service sector is the largest part of the economy. A measure of input costs rose.
Consumer confidence fell in April to the lowest since mid-2022 as Americans’ views of the labor market and their outlook for the economy deteriorated. The outlook for the job market and finances worsened as consumers contend with elevated inflation and high borrowing costs.
Asia
Taiwan’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in almost three years as global demand for artificial intelligence-related technologies fueled a boom in exports. Taiwan is one of the main beneficiaries of a surge in global demand for the hardware underpinning AI technologies, such as semiconductors and servers. The better-than-expected growth prompted the statistics bureau to upgrade its full-year GDP forecast.
Japan’s factory output rebounded in March from a dismal start to the year. The improvement in output comes after weakness early in the first quarter, as a New Year’s Day earthquake northwest of Tokyo and output suspensions in the auto industry weighed on activity from January. Output slumped 5.4% in the January-March period, the worst performance since the second quarter of 2020.
China’s factory activity expanded for a second month, the best streak in more than a year, bolstering hopes that the rebound in the world’s second-biggest economy can be sustained.
China President Xi Jinping is making a whistle-stop tour through Europe next week, as ties reach their most fraught point in decades. Criticism that China is flooding the world with cheap green tech has triggered a litany of probes by the European Union into excessive state subsidies. Accusations of spying and state-sponsored cyberattacks suggest some countries are increasingly cracking down on other more malign forms of influence.
Emerging Markets
Mexico’s economy posted modest growth in the first quarter compared to the previous three-month period, as policymakers consider whether to deliver an additional interest-rate cut at next week’s meeting.
Brazil’s industrial output advanced less than expected in March, the latest sign that activity is cooling in Latin America’s largest economy as the central bank considers slowing the pace of interest-rate cuts.
World
Outside of the Fed, Pakistan and Norway also held rates steady. The Czech National Bank lowered the benchmark rate as expected, while also lifting the interest rate outlook for this year and next. Colombia and Argentina also cut rates. Norway’s central bank signaled it may delay plans for cuts in the fall.
--With assistance from Maya Averbuch, Siuming Ho, William Horobin, Betty Hou, Linda Lew, Daniel Neligh, Mark Niquette, Yoshiaki Nohara, Niclas Rolander, Andrew Rosati, Augusta Saraiva, Zoe Schneeweiss, Mark Schroers, Alex Vasquez, Alexander Weber, Rebecca Choong Wilkins and Erica Yokoyama.
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