As India experiences a hot summer with heatwaves, cool showers may not be far off. There were predictions of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which could spell good news for the Indian monsoon later this year, Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology at the India Meteorological Department, told NDTV Profit in an exclusive chat.
To be sure, the weather body will release its monsoon forecast later this month in mid-April.
Skymet—a private weather forecasting service—expects this year's southwest monsoon, which lasts from June to September, to be categorised as 'normal'.
NDTV Profit also learnt that states are being updated of heatwave predictions and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, too, chaired a high-level review meeting on Thursday, with officials of the IMD, Ministry of Home Affairs and the National Disaster Management Authority.
Speaking to NDTV Profit, Mohapatra said that thunderstorm activity seen in central India should help temperatures to come down in the days to come, barring coastal areas along the eastern coast of southern India.
Heatwave Abating In South India?
Mohapatra noted that the first week of April saw high temperatures and heatwaves in parts of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal and Jharkhand, with the intensity being highest around April 5 to 7, to as high as 44.5-degree Celsius.
However, he added that the humidity is likely to worsen the rising temperature along coastal areas, and that the department will issue a 'hot and humid' weather warning in addition to heatwave warnings for the southern parts of the country. This is expected to affect Tamil Nadu, southern Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Kerala.
"In the next 5-7 days, the temperature will go to 'normal' and 'below normal' in central and parts of northwest India," Mohapatra said.
He added that the eastern coastal line of Odisha, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu may see a rise in temperatures, with the first two even experiencing isolated heatwaves.
Positive Indian Ocean Dipole
The months of March to May tend to see signs of pre-monsoon, which is characterised by heatwaves and thunderstorms, he explained. States like Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and adjoining areas are witnessing pre-monsoon, he added.
A moderate El Niño—a climatic phenomenon bringing about extreme heat—is expected to fade into a 'neutral' as of the end of May and the beginning of June, according to Mohapatra.
La Niña, which is associated with rain showers, is expected to begin from August and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole—which is also expected to contribute to showers—may bring about a normal monsoon season in the Indian subcontinent.
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